Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 012153
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
453 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-022200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
453 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A STOCKTON TO TABLE ROCK
LAKE LINE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THURSDAY MORNING AS THAT
FRONT BEGINS TO STALL. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. IF THESE STORMS CAN MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
FROM A FEW OF THE STORMS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY SUPPORT A
LIMITED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS
BOWING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OR ANY SUPERCELLS MOVING ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGAIN...THE THREAT FOR ANY TORNADOES
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A LIMITED TO LOCALLY ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR
FLOODING FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
OZARKS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL END BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THAT FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL THEN BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

SCHAUMANN



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