Thursday, April 23, 2015

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 231015
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
515 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
POTENTIAL HAZARD.

BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE SPRINGFIELD AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

MEANWHILE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THERE WILL THEN BE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS BEFORE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY EVENING BACK TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARDS WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY EVENING.

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING...AS WELL AS AREAS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS NORTH OF
A BOLIVAR TO ROLLA LINE FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK INTO
THE ELEVATED RISK AREA. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR
LINE SEGMENTS.

MEANWHILE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE
LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOLIVAR TO
ROLLA LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR MUCH
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANY STORMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA...THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALSO BECOMING
SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS THAT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THE OZARKS. THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY MATERIALIZES.

THERE WILL THEN BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

SCHAUMANN






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