Thursday, May 8, 2014

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 081104
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
604 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PRIMARILY WESTERN MISSOURI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH REMAINING POSSIBLE FROM SOME STORMS. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHIFT INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT. IF THIS
LINE OF STORMS MATERIALIZES...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THERE WOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED THREAT
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS KANSAS TO
STOCKTON TO WARSAW MISSOURI LINE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

THERE IS THEN A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT RETREATING WARM FRONT. IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY
END SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

SCHAUMANN



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