Thursday, May 8, 2014

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 081730
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITHIN ANY BOW SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS
LINE...BUT OVERALL THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH EAST AND MAY CLIP
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS KANSAS TO OSCEOLA
MISSOURI LINE THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A LINE AS THEY TRACK
INTO THESE AREAS. IF A LINE OF STORMS MATERIALIZES...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THERE
WOULD ALSO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO GENERALLY
NORTH OF A COLUMBUS KANSAS TO OSCEOLA MISSOURI LINE. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

THERE IS THEN A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THAT RETREATING WARM FRONT. IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL FINALLY
END SOMETIME LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

WFO SGF



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