Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 011056
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
556 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED HAIL RISK.
ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO ELDON
MISSOURI LINE AFTER 3 AM. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY THEN DEVELOP FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO TRACK INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
THEN DEVELOP ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
FROM LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK. LOCATIONS
THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SEE A
RISK FOR HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK FROM NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MISSOURI ON THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS LOW.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
INTO THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

SCHAUMANN



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