Monday, March 31, 2014

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 311943
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
243 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED HAIL RISK.
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
MPH OCCURRING ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 49 AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. FIRES IN OPEN GRASSLAND AREAS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY GROW AND SPREAD.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN MISSOURI THEN TRACK
EAST THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND ONLY
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 LATER THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SLOW MOVING...STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
IN LOCATIONS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. AS IS
THE CASE WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME REGARDING THE POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

WFO SGF



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