Thursday, December 19, 2013

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 192133
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-202145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
333 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PRIMARILY EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR WITH A
VERY THIN GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF A JOPLIN TO BUFFALO TO VIENNA
LINE. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WOULD LIKELY END BY MID DAY
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO ELDON MISSOURI LINE.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ANDERSON TO
SPRINGFIELD TO VIENNA LINE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THIS AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A SALEM TO BULL SHOALS LAKE LINE. IF THIS
RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...FLOODING OF MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AND PERHAPS
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR. WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. WHILE THE
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO OSAGE
BEACH MISSOURI LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN THE TRACK...EXPECTED RAIN...SNOW...AND ICE
AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND FLOODING. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ARE URGED TO KEEP
UP WITH THE FORECAST...AND MONITOR FOR ADVISORIES...WATCHES
AND WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL FILTER
INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

WFO SGF



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