Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Weather Update from ArtMorris.com
FLUS43 KSGF 181834
HWOSGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CST WED DEC 18 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1234 PM CST WED DEC 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
LIMITED FOG RISK.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
CORRIDOR.

THE COMBINATION OF THE BRISK WINDS AND A DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHEAST INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS
REGION. FIRES IN THESE CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
QUICKLY GROW AND SPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS PRIMARILY
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY MINOR.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE HAZARDS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS
PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES...IT MAY LEAD TO A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE AND A DUSTING OF SNOW. ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD
LIKELY END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING.

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN EXPECTED INSTABILITY MAY
WARRANT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL BE FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS HEAVY
SNOW BAND MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THIS STORM SYSTEM.

WHILE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND...WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE OVERALL SETUP AND TRACK
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS IT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND EXPECTED HAZARDS ARE
THEREFORE LIKELY AS THIS WEEKEND APPROACHES. THOSE PLANNING
TRAVEL THIS WEEKEND ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
ARE URGED TO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL FILTER
INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

$$

LINDENBERG



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