Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Storms expected to develop and move our way

345pm
The Storm Prediction Center thinks that storms would fire in southern
Kansas between 4 and 5pm and start moving our direction. We're watching.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY BY 21-22Z
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE KS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY GENERALLY TRACK S/SE TOWARD NE OK
AND FAR SW MO/NW AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE BY 21-22Z IN THE VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND/OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE
SE KS/NE OK BORDER. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S...AND 19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED RAPIDLY WEAKENING INHIBITION.
GIVEN STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE QUITE VIGOROUS ONCE
INITIATION OCCURS. EVOLUTION OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS A BIT
UNCLEAR AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR SHOULD
BE ADEQUATE TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER FORCING ALOFT.

CURRENT THINKING IS A S/SE MOVING STORM CLUSTER WILL EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO A BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS SRN KS AND MOVE INTO OK/SW
MO/NW AR. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL KS...STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WHERE FORCING IS WEAKER
STILL...AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER.