Monday, July 22, 2013

Monday's Forecast Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY - WEDNESDAY)

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
FORCED BY A SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE THAT WAS PASSING DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY...LEAVING THE OZARKS WITHIN AN AREA OR WEAK HEIGHT RISES.

HEIGHT RISES WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY POCKETS OF UNCAPPED AIR COULD
EXPERIENCE FREE CONVECTION LATER TODAY...THEREFORE WILL KEEP SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...AS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS IN NATURE...AND MOST LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY STAY DRY.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL LIKELY FORCE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. THIS WOULD LIKELY TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE OZARKS
REGION...GIVING THE AREA WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND A LIMITED RISK FOR FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
AS WELL...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE OZARKS AIRMASS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...AS MODELS SHOW A SAGGING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS STALL THIS FEATURE OUT OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...HELPING TO POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY.

MEANWHILE...THE TRAIN OF WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUES...SPARKING
CONVECTION ON A PERIOD BASIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY - SUNDAY)

NOT MUCH CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE REGION REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...AS THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS
THROUGH THE OZARKS...CREATING EVEN MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN. BOTH
NOCTURNAL AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS SET
UP.

I`D LIKE TO BE ABLE TO RULE OUT SOME PERIODS WHERE WE WILL NOT
HAVE RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...WE CAN`T AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE LOOK
FOR PRECIP CHANCES ON A DAILY/NIGHTLY BASIS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 TO
7 DAYS...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT KJLN AND KBBG...ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES. LIGHT FOG IS THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN BY MID MORNING
ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY LOOK FAIRLY LOW DURING THE DAY.