Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 021705
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATTENTION
TURNS TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT TO
THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER SUNRISE WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
TO THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL OCCUR. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
TODAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE FELT
TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
CONDITIONS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A GOOD RATIONAL COOLING
SETUP SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OCCUR UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
NICE WARM UP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TRACKS AWAY AND TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED SOME MOISTENING
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS NOT BEEN ANTICIPATED WELL BY THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTIONING OF FOG FOR BOTH THE
JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AERODROMES. WILL MONITOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO SEE IF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH CAN TAKE CONTROL. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR FOG WOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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