Monday, November 1, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 011808
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED DOWN INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.
QUITE A SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MIDDLE 40S
TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
IR SATELLITE SHOW HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY RIDING DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS MORNING NOTED VERY WELL ON IR
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATER TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED AND BEST MOISTURE WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT JUST ENOUGH WILL BE PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN OZARKS TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF ANY WILL BE LIGHT.

FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK... A DEEP
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN U.S. THIS
WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING
SOME VERY CHILLY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL.

TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND SLIGHT RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL TAKE PLACE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL. EXPECT A DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ACT TO
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE...HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WHERE
THIS OCCURS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO MVFR. BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HAVE ADDED CB TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION AT ALL LOCATIONS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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