Monday, November 1, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 020108
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
808 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED THE GOING FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN CWA OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER SATURATE THE
PREVIOUSLY DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HWO TO UPGRADE
THE FLOODING RISK TO LIMITED IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING STORMS MAY OCCUR.

LINDENBERG

&&

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BORDER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING SO WIDESPREAD THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AS SKIES
CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUILDING HIGH INTENSIFIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY RETURNING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS TEND TO TAKE
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH DOES NOT FAVOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.
WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE A CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TUE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING
THE FORECAST POINTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 09-12Z AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM ITS LOCATION AT 23Z.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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