Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 031145
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
NICE WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE NOTHING
MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH TODAY AND BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT SPREADING INTO THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ON THURSDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A KILLING FREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS A RESULT A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS
TROUGH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THAT NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST SLIDES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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