Monday, November 1, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 011942
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
242 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BORDER. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY LACKING SO WIDESPREAD THUNDER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AS SKIES
CLEAR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL INTO THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUILDING HIGH INTENSIFIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH CENTER WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY RETURNING WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS TEND TO TAKE
THIS TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH DOES NOT FAVOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA.
WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND FREEZE OVER THE WEEKEND...INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...FIRE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE A CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ACT TO
LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE...HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WHERE
THIS OCCURS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO MVFR. BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT. HAVE ADDED CB TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION AT ALL LOCATIONS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com