Friday, November 5, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 051046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT FRI NOV 5 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WITH A NICE WARM UP TO END THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIRMASS ARE CO-LOCATED
BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NEBRASKA...AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 20S
IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER BUT STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING.
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOOVER AROUND FREEZING HERE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO CREATE SOME GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY WEAKEN TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SPREADING INTO THE AREA
WITH THIS COLDER AIR MASS. DESPITE TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 20S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS. WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND WILL BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY AS THEY HELP TO USHER THE
WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...AND FEEL MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN RETURNING
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE UNDER-CUT MODEL DEW POINT
VALUES BY QUITE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS AND ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. AGAIN SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE CWA TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON AT
SGF/BBG ONCE MIXING BEGINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A WEAK INVERSION
MIXES OUT AFTER 9 AM THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY...LIKELY LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER TOO AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AS THESE HUMIDITIES ARE REALIZED.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO
QUICK TO BRING BACK MOISTURE IN THIS REGIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 25
PERCENT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SCHAUMANN/WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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