Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 032348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST REMAIN THE CHANCES FOR COLD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE GULF STATES. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OZARKS
AS WELL BRINGING A SUNNY SKY AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND...WEAKER...TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING ADDITIONAL COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. THIS COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
-4 DEGREES C...EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS TO BE SUB FREEZING WITH
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND FREEZING AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FRO A
KILLING FROST OR FREEZE FRO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS COLD YET...IS FAIRLY GOOD AT THIS
POINT. OVERALL THE OZARKS CAN EXPECT RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT THE
REGION CAN REALIZE WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE GFS OR ECMWF
RESPECTIVELY... HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT WE WILL SEE A LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE CLOSED LOW WOULD BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

FOR THE 04/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND PROGS SUPPORT A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS ABOVE A WEAK
NIGHTTIME INVERSION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04/14Z AS THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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