Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 022012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL INITIALLY BE CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
THE EFFECTS THEY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. THEN LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS FINALLY CLOSED OFF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE QUITE A FEW BREAKS OUT THERE.
THINK THIS MAY LAST INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THEREFORE EXPECT THE CLOUDS FOLLOW SUIT
AND FILL BACK NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT IS
A TOUGH CALL...AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. DO THINK THERE IS SOME FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HIT CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES. FOG IS A TOUGHER CALL AS THERE IS
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG. HAVE HELD OFF INSERTING INTO
FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM DEW
POINT/WIND TRENDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
IMPACT AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RATHER CHILLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE NOT CLEAR CUT...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE
RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SETTLES INTO THAT AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO POST AT THIS TIME AS
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LONG WAVE CHARTS INDICATE A HIGHER ZONAL INDEX ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 WITH THE POLAR JET SHIFTING NORTH. THIS MEANS A BIG
WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THEN BRING A STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA STARTING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TRACKS AWAY AND TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED SOME MOISTENING
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS NOT BEEN ANTICIPATED WELL BY THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTIONING OF FOG FOR BOTH THE
JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AERODROMES. WILL MONITOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO SEE IF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH CAN TAKE CONTROL. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR FOG WOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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