Saturday, October 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010/

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THEN
LATER...TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE MON-TUE.

SFC PRESSURE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SFC RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 20-25
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AS 0F 2 PM...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...CURING GRASSES...AND FALLING LEAVES...FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW LOCAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK
SFC TROUGH.

PROGS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND WEAKEN WHILE
ANOTHER OFF THE U.S. PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY
LATE SUNDAY...THEN DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON NIGHT. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VLY MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADDED SOME SMALL POPS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY
TUE...MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN MO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP
WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN AMOUNTS..IF WE GET ANYTHING AT
ALL.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WED INTO THU. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF-GEM-GFS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL SET UP CAMP...BUT
IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
TO US. WENT CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
SAT) AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND A SOUTH SFC
WIND/RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR WILL BE THE RULE. HIGH PRESSURE AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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