Saturday, October 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301800
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A QUITE MORNING WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND MILDER
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ALSO
SEEING SOME HIGH CIRRUS ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR IS STILL IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION ON THE GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THIS WEEKEND AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DIVING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES DOWN NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY DOWN IN THE WESTERN GULF REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR WILL BE THE RULE. HIGH PRESSURE AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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