Saturday, October 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 240413
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST
LINGERING SHOWERS BY LATE EVENING. THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THERE
IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI MAINLY NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION. A
FEW DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION BUT HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
HAVE REALLY DIMINISHED AS THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
OVER THE CWA AS THIS AREA CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTH. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE...SO IF ANY DECENT UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP
IT MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHIFTING
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK NORTH OF THE CWA.

SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE CURRENT
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO TEXAS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SHEAR VALUES STILL IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ON SUNDAY WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF US 60 AND I44.

ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET OF 140 KTS DRIVES THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1110 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN OVERCAST DECK WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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