Sunday, October 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 242235
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 523 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

THUNDERSTORMS HAD YET TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE MISSOURI
OZARKS OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WERE
FOCUSED WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE AMPLE INSTABILITY THE LACK OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT HAD PRECLUDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO THE EVENING BUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE RED RIVER SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

CURRENTLY...MAIN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BAND LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
AXIS. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH AREA OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND ML CAPES OF 1000-1200 J/KG DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SHOULD
SEE GOOD WARMING DEVELOP WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MOS NUMBERS FOR JLN LOOK WAY TOO
WARM THOUGH EVEN WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 800 MB SO HAVE CUT BACK
QUITE A BIT THERE.

MONDAY NIGHT...130 TO 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BARREL IN FROM
THE WEST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A SHARP LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
AXIS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. WHILE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
12Z TUE WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS.

SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING ON THE COASTS. SHOULD SEE A
WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z AT AREA TERMINALS. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL HELP TO
TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL PRODUCE RATHER
GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
ONCE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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