Friday, October 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291751
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE AREA THE COLDEST
AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY IN
EFFECT AREA WIDE TILL MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE 60S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND RETURNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MID 30S AND MILDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 70. WITH A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
LIKE WEATHER. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP BRING
DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF THE U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A DEEPER TROUGH AND A LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH WOULD BE A COOLER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/

FOR THE 29/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS
VLY TO EAST TX WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 30/1500Z ONCE DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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