Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 202316
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION/SEVERE CHANCES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH QUICK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA WITH LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND
SOME WIND GUSTS UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BRINGING A LIMITED
FIRE WEATHER RISK TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WIND SHOULD DIMINISH AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA AND DESPITE THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY...WIND WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FAIRLY LOW.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE NEXT MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH AS
IT LIFTS NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE
AND BRING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW.
COULD SEE INITIAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN CWA BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY
IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO THE CWA. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOKS
SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MORE UPPER ENERGY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS AR/SOUTHERN MO ON MONDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 614 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT AREA TERMINALS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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