Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S...WHILE WESTERLY BREEZES PERSISTED AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATED SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS WHERE TALL
GRASS HAS PARTIALLY CURED.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN
ACCELERATE...AND RANGE WITHIN 15 TO 25 MPH. FUEL STICK MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE FORESTED AREAS ARE LIKELY TOO MOIST FOR ANY RAPID
SPREAD OF WILD FIRES...HOWEVER...PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL ALL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FIRE WEATHER WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT COOL DOWN WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO ONLY WARM INTO THE
50S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE YEAR...AS READINGS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DEEP WITHIN THE RUGGED OZARK TERRAIN COULD
EXPERIENCE UPPER 20S. THIS COLD AIR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER
THE OZARKS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP RIGHT BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE HINTED
TOWARD A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN IN PLACE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A
MINIMUM.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A STRING OF LOW
LEVEL JETS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN ALL
TERMINALS ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOZ056>058-069>071-081-082-092-096-097-105.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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