Friday, October 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292023
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE NO
REALLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION.

A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL INDEX WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL STILL
FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK AS THIS AXIS WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE MAY DROP LIKE A ROCK AFTER
SUNSET AND STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COMMENCES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY CLOSE TO MET NUMBERS.

WILL THEN START TO SEE A FRONTOGENETIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A SHEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. JUST NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CARRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE CLOSING IT OFF NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THINK THE MAIN PV ANOMALY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK UP FROM THE
GULF AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW. KEPT POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QUESTION MARKS INVOLVING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/

FOR THE 29/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS
VLY TO EAST TX WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 30/1500Z ONCE DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. DSA

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS SEEM TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING BACK HIGHER DEW POINTS THIS WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF
THE GULF. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com