Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 272257
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MITIGATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS
MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY
WEST WINDS GUSTED TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WELL INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW...THAT WILL ROLL INTO
THE OZARKS ON A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL CREATE
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...AND WARMING ONLY INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH IS NOW FORECASTED TO HOVER DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM CREATING PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER HOW DRY THIS REPLACEMENT AIRMASS IS.
DEWPOINTS OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL MONTHS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGREES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER...TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUING TILL AROUND 9AM.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS FANTASTIC CONDITIONS
EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUNNY SKIES...SOUTH WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
WITH A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE...RAIN COULD BE DIFFICULT TO COME
BY.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH A TURN OF THE SURFACE WIND FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG
30-45 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WE PLAN TO ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-091-092-096-097-105.

KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

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