Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

DEEP CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE TRENDS INDICATING SOME FILLING AND
WEAKENING OCCURRING. WIND GUSTS AROUND THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OUR WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS TODAY.
WITH LITTLE RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPECIFICS ARE INCLUDED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE AS GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. INCLUDED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO A LEVEL LOW
JET EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

GRIFFIN

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HAVE DRIED OUT VEGETATION
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST RAWS LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOWING FUEL STICK MOISTURE AROUND 10 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE PLATEAU. WILL HOLD
OFF ON EXTENDING THE WARNING AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THERE.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-091-092-096-097-105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com