Sunday, October 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 312322
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010/

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATE MON-TUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

IT HAS BEEN A NICE HALLOWEEN SO FAR...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT
GOOD WEATHER WON'T CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ACTUALLY...A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP NORTH OF A STALLED SFC FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM OK INTO AR...WITH READINGS ONLY NEAR 60 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST AR. SOME
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO BUT LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

A SHORTWAVE OVER WA/OR/ID WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON
NIGHT THEN INTO EAST TX BY TUE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY FETCH OF
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES VERY MERIDIONAL BY THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS BY THU EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 6 DEGREES TO THE MO/AR LINE ON FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD CORRESPOND TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
40S. SHADED A LITTLE WARMER WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING AT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK. A DECENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF MOVING THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH SFC FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION HAD SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL
NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE
THE SUN SETS BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP SUSTAINED WIND AT AROUND 10 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

GAEDE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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