Sunday, October 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS
AXIS OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS FROM
NEAR ROLLA TO EAST OF BRANSON. A COUPLE OF LIGHT ECHOES HAD DEVELOPED
IN TEXAS COUNTY AT 00Z AND GRADUAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WITHIN THIS
AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BEST DEEP LAYERED SHEAR HAS SHIFTED TO
THE EAST AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EAST OF A GAINESVILLE TO SALEM LINE THIS
EVENING. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIMITED.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

CURRENTLY...MAIN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BAND LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
AXIS. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH AREA OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND ML CAPES OF 1000-1200 J/KG DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SHOULD
SEE GOOD WARMING DEVELOP WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MOS NUMBERS FOR JLN LOOK WAY TOO
WARM THOUGH EVEN WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 800 MB SO HAVE CUT BACK
QUITE A BIT THERE.

MONDAY NIGHT...130 TO 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BARREL IN FROM
THE WEST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A SHARP LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
AXIS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. WHILE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
12Z TUE WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS.

SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING ON THE COASTS. SHOULD SEE A
WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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