Sunday, October 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250455
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

THE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
DURING THE EVENING HAD DISSIPATED. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING
TO STABILIZE AND THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

CURRENTLY...MAIN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BAND LOCATED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE
AXIS. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH AREA OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND ML CAPES OF 1000-1200 J/KG DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SHOULD
SEE GOOD WARMING DEVELOP WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND MOST LOCATIONS
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. MOS NUMBERS FOR JLN LOOK WAY TOO
WARM THOUGH EVEN WHEN MIXING DOWN FROM 800 MB SO HAVE CUT BACK
QUITE A BIT THERE.

MONDAY NIGHT...130 TO 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BARREL IN FROM
THE WEST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WITH A SHARP LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
AXIS MOVING THROUGH AS WELL. WHILE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
12Z TUE WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS.

SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TROUGHING ON THE COASTS. SHOULD SEE A
WARMUP BY THE WEEKEND.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1145 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BUT REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE
SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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