Saturday, October 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 231932
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
232 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THERE
IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI MAINLY NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION. A
FEW DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION BUT HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
HAVE REALLY DIMINISHED AS THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
OVER THE CWA AS THIS AREA CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTH. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE...SO IF ANY DECENT UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP
IT MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHIFTING
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK NORTH OF THE CWA.

SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE CURRENT
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO TEXAS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SHEAR VALUES STILL IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ON SUNDAY WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF US 60 AND I44.

ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET OF 140 KTS DRIVES THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AT MID DAY TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE TAF SITES MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AND HAVE
LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER.

THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING IN
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WINDS
DECREASING THIS EVENING.

THERE COULD BE A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE
AREA THIS EVENING THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AT MID
DAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH
TOWARDS THE ARE THIS EVENING. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE
CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA MODIFY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND COULD AFFECT AND LIMIT THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS EVENING...HAVE JUST ADDED CB TO THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD INTRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AT
THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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