Saturday, October 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 232251
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 545 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO SPREAD
NORTH OUT OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN INHIBIITED BY
MARGINAL INSTABILTITY. DO NOT EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ANY MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING. THEREFORE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH ONLY A LIMITED
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR
PARAMETERS.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THERE
IS AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI MAINLY NORTH OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION. A
FEW DISCRETE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND OF
CONVECTION BUT HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
HAVE REALLY DIMINISHED AS THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
OVER THE CWA AS THIS AREA CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTH. SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE...SO IF ANY DECENT UPDRAFTS CAN DEVELOP
IT MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHIFTING
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK NORTH OF THE CWA.

SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS THE CURRENT
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO TEXAS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY MORNING IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ANOTHER
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH SHEAR VALUES STILL IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ON SUNDAY WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF US 60 AND I44.

ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET OF 140 KTS DRIVES THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD. A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 545 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS TEH PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. AN OVERCAST DECK WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. MVFR
VISIBILTIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WITH A LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY MAINTAING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILIITY FOR
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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