Thursday, October 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290439
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WHILE SKIES
REMAINED SUNNY. PARCELS RIDING ALONG A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
ADVECTED MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE OZARKS. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE FIRST
KILLING FREEZE OF THE 2010-2011 COLD SEASON. IT WILL BE PERFECT
TIMING FOR THE CANADIAN HIGH TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM TO MAXIMIZE A DIURNAL CURVE.

THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS...A COMBINATION KNOWN TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN RESPONSE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL
SUNSHINE KICK IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
BACK INTO THE 60S. THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FANTASTIC WEATHER WEEKEND...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE OZARKS REGION BECOMES POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG BELT OF NORTHERLIES...ALLOWING AN UPPER MIDWEST
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME CHILLY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO NONE.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE WAS NUDGING EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SOUTH WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT JLN AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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