Sunday, October 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310728
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR SATELLITE JUST SHOWING SOME HIGH CIRRUS UP NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40 TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR
WINDS WILL CHANGE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY. A DECENT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE LOW 60S TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER.

AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES DOWN
TO THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT ON CUTTING THIS SYSTEM OFF ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT
I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY FAR TO OUR SOUTH IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND COLDER THAN
THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE THE SAME IDEA. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUE ARE
QUITE LOW BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS.
A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL SET UP OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING A VERY COOL AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN INTO WI OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SURFACE WIND CHANGING TO EASTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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