Thursday, October 21, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 211958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS.

CURRENTLY...SEEING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON IN AN AREA
OF INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY. BULK OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE BETTER
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. CURRENT ACTIVITY
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA WITH DRY LOW LEVELS.

AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG WITH THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
WESTERN CWA WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE SPREADS THROUGH
THE CWA. INSTABILITY DOESNT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT
AND SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE VERY LIMITED.

SATURDAYS SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLEARING. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE PAINTING THE MAIN AREA OF ML
CAPE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
SEVERE STORMS. LOOKS LIKE SEVERE MODE WOULD BE SUPER CELLULAR AT
THIS POINT WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MOST SEVERE STORMS EXITING
THE CWA BY LATE IN THE EVENING.

WITH MAIN TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY...STILL
CANT RULE OUT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE EXTEND PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE TROUGH SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...END
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
THATS ABOUT IT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STILL LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON HOWEVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS BY 18Z FRI. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE PLACE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A POSSIBILITY
OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION
OUT OF TAFS AS A LARGE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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