Thursday, October 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO HIGH SHORT RANGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. DESPITE STRONG H8 NORTHWEST FLOW H8 TEMPS ACTUALLY ON
THE RISE TODAY INDICATING HOW SHORT LIVED THE COOL DOWN WILL BE.
H925-850 STREAMLINES OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE AIR MASS SOURCE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TODAY.

HUMIDITIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND MIXING
WILL REDUCE THIS STILL FURTHER. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HOWEVER REDUCE THE THREAT OF RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE.

HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLE INTO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE WILL DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BASED
OFF OBSERVED UPSTREAM DEW POINTS...COLDEST READINGS IN THE UPPER
20S WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR OVER
THREE HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO RETURN FLOW THAT BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD
SUNRISE...THOUGH VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF
THE WARNING REGION WIDE.

EXPECT A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AND STILL WARMER ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO REGION.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

00Z WRF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE
GENERAL FLOW THROUGHOUT PERIOD. A WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE. ECM MUCH DEEPER WITH UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WITHOUT MOISTURE IMPACT
ON OBSERVED WEATHER TO BE MINIMAL RESULTING IN DRY...SEASONABLY
MILD WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SKY HAS CLEARED THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL EXPERIENCE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT THE 3 TAF LOCATIONS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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