Saturday, October 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 230420
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1115 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010/

PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITHIN THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER EXPECT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE
RED RIVER TRACKS INTO THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 225 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STILL FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ENOUGH CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE FOR STORMS
TO REGENERATE OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS ARE
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF ML CAPES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLEARING AND MORE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE DRY
SLOT WITH THE GFS WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE BEST INSTABILITY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CWA EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL CERTAINLY HAVE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR ONE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND EITHER CLIPPING OUR FAR
NORTHWEST CWA OR MISSING IT AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THIS AREA MAY OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK
SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED.

WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL
STILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG AND AHEAD OF BEST MOISTURE AXIS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE EXTEND PERIOD CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE ACTIVE AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION EVERY COUPLE DAYS OR SO.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BEHIND THIS
WEEKENDS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN A
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AS THE
AREA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REALLY RECOVER AFTER THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE LIMITED TO LIGHT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1115 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010/

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z THEN LIKELY
DIMINISH FOR AWHILE DURING THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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