Saturday, September 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251943
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD REINFORCING COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER TIME AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AS ALL OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPING DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010/

FOR THE 25/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NW MO INTO NORTHERN KS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING (00Z-04Z). EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID
MS VLY REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND SREF PROGGED CEILING/VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A
MENTION OF IFR OR LOW END MVFR CEILINGS...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z-
09Z...AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE FROM THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAIN. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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