Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 222251
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS REMAINED
DRY...AS TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 80S. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...CREATING AN EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM ONE
HALF TO TWO INCHES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE. RAIN WILL FINALLY END BY
FRIDAY EVENING / NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES.

BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO
THE OZARKS REGION...ALLOWING AN EVEN COOLER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA. AS A MATTER OF FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD
ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN...BUT NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED.

CRAMER

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...GFS ENSEMBLES BRING A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN MO ON SUNDAY THEN SOUTH INTO AR BY MON. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE WEST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER GREATLY...SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TO
THE EAST MON/TUE. IN GENERAL...MOST SCENARIOS DEPICT COOL
TEMPERATURES MON THROUGH WED. CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT CONTINUED
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW CENTER
ENDS UP...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. WILL CARRY RAIN CHANCES/POPS FOR
MON BUT HAVE LEFT THE TUE/WED PERIOD DRY. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND SHIFT INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT BY 00Z FRI.
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AT THE FORECAST POINTS OVERNIGHT. AS
THESE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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