Thursday, September 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 240446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE ZONE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH DEEPER CONVECTION
WAS FORMING DIRECTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WHILE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. WITH FAIRLY MOIST
PRE-EXISTING SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...I WOULD SUSPECT THAT WE'LL
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS. PARTICULARLY WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...A REGION THAT IS ONLY TWO DAYS REMOVED FROM
MINOR RIVER FLOODING. REGARDING STORM INTENSITY...THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OZARKS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DECIDED NOT TO PLACE SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THIS AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN LATELY. MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH...HAS RECEIVED ANYWHERE
FROM 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH.

THE REST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS A MATTER OF FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE CUTOFF CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY SAG OVER
MISSOURI...BRINGING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SUNDAY WILL
BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL LIKE WEATHER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO EVEN DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWER TO PUSH INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING BUT WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS OF 04Z.
ALMOST NO LIGHTNING DETECTED ON LDS. WILL STILL SEE POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT HAVE TAKEN THUNDER OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP PREDOMINANT VISIBILITY IN THE VFR
RANGE WITH A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR VISIBILITY. EXPECTING
CEILINGS WITH THE RAIN AND INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO BE IN THE
MVFR RANGE. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AT
ALL 3 LOCATIONS.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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