Thursday, September 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 231814
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
114 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. IN THE INTERIM...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ACROSS THE
AREA WITH DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA ARE TO BE EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MISSOURI AND SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MOST OF THE STRONG WIND DYNAMICS
REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE COLD POOLS CAN EFFECTIVELY ORIENT WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MUCH COOLING AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM CANADA AND
DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO HAVE MORE CONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN
POTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 100 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010/

FOR THE 23/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER NEB ABD WESTERN KS.
INCREASING MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN LOW END VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
OVER SE KS INTO SW MO. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHIFTING EAST
WITH TIME AND EXPECT A WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS FIELD AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS. FOR NOW...HAVE PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD EASILY SEE BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A
PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD SCATTER LOWER CLOUDS OUT AFTER 11-14Z. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-093>095-
101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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