Saturday, September 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 252300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD REINFORCING COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER TIME AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AS ALL OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPING DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. EXPECTING MVFR THEN
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. A GRADUAL
RISING TREND IN CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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