Monday, September 20, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 202327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

IT WAS ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY DAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S...WHILE SOUTHERLY BREEZES PERSISTED. A SUMMERTIME
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...WHILE A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE SUMMERTIME HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST SOME
MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE OZARKS FROM THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER...I'M
HAVING DOUBTS THAT SUFFICIENT LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TYPICALLY IN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEM PRECIP EVENTS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE FRONT...WHICH
REMAINS UP ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MISSOURI...LEAVING THE CAPPED
WARM SECTOR DRY. THEREFORE I HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
PERIODS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE OZARKS...A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE LOOK FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUR NEXT EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO WITHIN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE EXODUS OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GIVE WAY TO A SPECTACULAR
WEEKEND. OUR WEEKEND FORECAST WAS WEIGHTED MUCH CLOSER WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. THE TWO MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN
AIRMASS IN ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CUTOFF UPPER CYCLONE. MEANWHILE
THE GFS SUGGESTS MEAN RIDGING OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND
LOW HUMIDITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT TERMINAL VICINITIES AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

FOSTER

&&

CLIMATE...

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE
UNITED STATES. AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOST RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE SAFE...BUT A FEW RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGHS
AND RECORD WARM LOWS FOR THE COMING WORKWEEK FOR
SPRINGFIELD...JOPLIN...VICHY/ROLLA...AND WEST PLAINS.

DATE...REC HIGH (YEAR)/REC WARM LOW (YEAR)....

SPRINGFIELD...

9/20...97 (1954) / 71 (1931)
9/21...93 (1955) / 73 (1931)
9/22...93 (1937) / 69 (1935)
9/23...92 (1960) / 72 (1921)
9/24...92 (1939) / 74 (1984)

JOPLIN...

9/20...99 (1954) / 75 (1980)
9/21...95 (1956) / 76 (1980)
9/22...95 (1956) / 73 (1988)
9/23...89 (2005) / 73 (1986)
9/24...89 (1984) / 76 (1958)

VICHY/ROLLA...

9/20...95 (1954) / 71 (1948)
9/21...94 (1955) / 72 (1970)
9/22...95 (1956) / 69 (1993)
9/23...92 (1897) / 68 (2005)
9/24...93 (1901) / 69 (1958)

WEST PLAINS...

9/20...97 (1955) / 69 (1948)
9/21...95 (1955) / 69 (1964)
9/22...92 (1948) / 68 (1970)
9/23...94 (2005) / 69 (1984)
9/24...90 (1961) / 72 (1984)

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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