Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 221857
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS REMAINED
DRY...AS TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 80S. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...CREATING AN EPISODE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM ONE
HALF TO TWO INCHES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR AREAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE. RAIN WILL FINALLY END BY
FRIDAY EVENING / NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES.

BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE INTO
THE OZARKS REGION...ALLOWING AN EVEN COOLER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA. AS A MATTER OF FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD
ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN...BUT NOTHING TOO ORGANIZED.

CRAMER

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...GFS ENSEMBLES BRING A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN MO ON SUNDAY THEN SOUTH INTO AR BY MON. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE WEST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THEN DIFFER GREATLY...SHIFTING THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TO
THE EAST MON/TUE. IN GENERAL...MOST SCENARIOS DEPICT COOL
TEMPERATURES MON THROUGH WED. CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT CONTINUED
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW CENTER
ENDS UP...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. WILL CARRY RAIN CHANCES/POPS FOR
MON BUT HAVE LEFT THE TUE/WED PERIOD DRY. DSA

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1246 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2010/

FOR THE 22/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW. PRECIP/SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS NEAR A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS MAINTAINED
IN ALL TAFS WITH THE STRONGER SSW-LY FLOW. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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