Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 221615
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1115 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

UPDATE...

HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. REMNANT COLD POOL/OUTFLOW FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE THIS DOME
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS WE HAVE
SEEN THIS MORNING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
PLAUSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ACROSS THE SAME AREAS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
ANTICIPATING THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA AND IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN
OZARKS AND WILL DIE OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A STEADY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY A VERY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO TO THE AREA
OUT OF CANADA. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS HOUR REGARDING
THE STORM POSITION AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE WEEKEND FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010/

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...TWO POCKETS OF SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING...THIS WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING WITH A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BECOMING SCT WITH TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY AT JLN/SGF FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
HAZARD OF NOTE WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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