Thursday, September 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 231950
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE ZONE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH DEEPER CONVECTION
WAS FORMING DIRECTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WHILE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. WITH FAIRLY MOIST
PRE-EXISTING SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...I WOULD SUSPECT THAT WE'LL
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS. PARTICULARLY WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...A REGION THAT IS ONLY TWO DAYS REMOVED FROM
MINOR RIVER FLOODING. REGARDING STORM INTENSITY...THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OZARKS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DECIDED NOT TO PLACE SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THIS AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN LATELY. MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH...HAS RECEIVED ANYWHERE
FROM 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH.

THE REST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS A MATTER OF FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE CUTOFF CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY SAG OVER
MISSOURI...BRINGING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SUNDAY WILL
BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL LIKE WEATHER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO EVEN DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 100 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010/

FOR THE 23/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER NEB ABD WESTERN KS.
INCREASING MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN LOW END VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
OVER SE KS INTO SW MO. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SHIFTING EAST
WITH TIME AND EXPECT A WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS FIELD AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND TSTMS. FOR NOW...HAVE PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COULD EASILY SEE BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A
PUSH OF DRY AIR SHOULD SCATTER LOWER CLOUDS OUT AFTER 11-14Z. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>091-093>095-
101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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