Friday, September 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 242229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010/

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST EMPHASIS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE IA/MO STATE LINE BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SHALLOW FOG NEAR AREA LAKES AND IN LOW LYING TERRAIN.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER MT...ANOTHER ALONG
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE...WILL PHASE AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
IL/EASTERN MO BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT
ALL ARE PAINTING THE SAME BASIC SCENARIO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN LINE WITH A MOS
BLEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWFA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
WITH SOME AREAS BARELY GETTING INTO THE 60S.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK (AFTER SUNDAY). A DEEP UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER THIS TAF ISSUANCE EXPIRES AND MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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