Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR REVOLVES AROUND THE PASSAGE OF DRY
COLD FRONTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH KEEPING THE OZARKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WALE OF THE LOW...HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY WILL TRAVERS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 DEGREES
C...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT...THINKING THE CHANCES FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIMITED AT BEST.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RE ENFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S
FOR HIGHS AND THE ;UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AS A RESULT.

THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6 DEGREES C...THE REGION COULD SEE SOME
RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE OZARKS
POTENTIALLY SEEING OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS IN THE MID 30S.

IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN SHOULD MAKE THE CONDITIONS RATHER FALL
LIKE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN IA TO CNTRL KS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 30/0600Z-1200Z. GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 30/1400Z AS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE MIXING INCREASES.
WITH LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A DRY AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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