Thursday, September 23, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 232238
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE ZONE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH DEEPER CONVECTION
WAS FORMING DIRECTLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WHILE NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. WITH FAIRLY MOIST
PRE-EXISTING SOIL CONDITIONS IN PLACE...I WOULD SUSPECT THAT WE'LL
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS. PARTICULARLY WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...A REGION THAT IS ONLY TWO DAYS REMOVED FROM
MINOR RIVER FLOODING. REGARDING STORM INTENSITY...THE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR COMBINATION APPEARS TOO LOW FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OZARKS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE DECIDED NOT TO PLACE SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THIS AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAIN LATELY. MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH...HAS RECEIVED ANYWHERE
FROM 8 TO 13 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH.

THE REST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE IDEAL
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS A MATTER OF FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE CUTOFF CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY SAG OVER
MISSOURI...BRINGING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SUNDAY WILL
BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL LIKE WEATHER...WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO EVEN DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z FRI. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE ONSET OF THE TAFS
WITH DECOUPLING. WILL STILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE NIGHT.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION SHIFT INTO
THE REGION WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND CLEARS THINGS OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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